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一、核心新政要点（2026 年 1 月起）
I. Key Points of the Core New Policies (Effective from January 2026)
限购优化（核心）
Purchase Restriction Optimization (Core)
沪籍家庭：内环内 / 中环内最多 2 套，外环外不限套数；成年单身按家庭执行。
Shanghai hukou families: A maximum of 2 units within the Inner Ring/Middle Ring; no limit on the number of units outside the Outer Ring; adult singles are subject to family-based purchase restrictions.
非沪籍家庭：社保 / 个税连续满 1 年（原 5 年），家庭在沪无房即可买，内环内 / 中环内 1 套，外环外不限套数。
Non-Shanghai hukou families: Eligible to purchase with 1 consecutive year of social security/personal income tax payment (previously 5 years) and no housing in Shanghai under the family name; 1 unit within the Inner Ring/Middle Ring; no limit on the number of units outside the Outer Ring.
成年单身（沪 / 非沪）：内环内 / 中环内 1 套，外环外不限套数。
Adult singles (Shanghai/non-Shanghai hukou): 1 unit within the Inner Ring/Middle Ring; no limit on the number of units outside the Outer Ring.
信贷政策升级2. Credit Policy Upgrade
商贷：首套、二套利率并轨，下限 LPR-45BP（约 3.05%），银行自主定价；首套首付最低 30%（五大新城等片区最低 15%），二套普通住宅 50%、非普通住宅 70%。
Commercial loans: The interest rates for first and second homes are unified, with a lower limit of LPR minus 45BP (approximately 3.05%), and banks have independent pricing rights; the minimum down payment for the first home is 30% (15% in key areas such as the Five New Cities); 50% for the second ordinary residential housing and 70% for non-ordinary residential housing.
公积金：首套 5 年以下 2.1%、5 年以上 2.6%；二套 5 年以下 2.525%、5 年以上 3.075%；首套最高贷 120 万、二套 80 万，二星及以上绿色建筑上浮 15%，多子女家庭首套在此基础上再上浮 20%；可 “提贷并行”（提公积金付首付且不影响贷款额度）。
Provident Fund loans: 2.1% for the first home with a term of less than 5 years and 2.6% for more than 5 years; 2.525% for the second home with a term of less than 5 years and 3.075% for more than 5 years; the maximum loan amount is 1.2 million yuan for the first home and 800,000 yuan for the second home; an additional 15% increase for two-star and above green buildings, and an extra 20% increase on this basis for the first home of multi-child families; "withdrawal and loan in parallel" is allowed (withdrawing provident fund to pay the down payment without affecting the loan amount).
税费政策调整（2026 年 1 月 1 日起）3. Tax and Fee Policy Adjustments (Effective from January 1, 2026)
增值税：满 2 年（含）免征，不满 2 年按 3% 全额征收（原满 5 年免征）。
Value-added tax (VAT): Exempted for housing with a holding period of 2 years or more (inclusive); a full 3% levy for housing held for less than 2 years (previously exempted for 5 years or more).
契税：首套 90㎡及以下 1%、90㎡以上 1.5%，二套 3%；140㎡及以下家庭唯一住房按 1% 缴纳。
Deed tax: 1% for the first home of 90 square meters or less and 1.5% for more than 90 square meters; 3% for the second home; 1% for the only family home of 140 square meters or less.
房产税：沪籍首套免征，二套按人均 60㎡免；非沪籍首套暂免，二套及以上按人均 60㎡免，持居住证满 3 年享沪籍同等待遇。
Property tax: Exempted for the first home of Shanghai hukou families; the exemption area for the second home is calculated at 60 square meters per person; temporarily exempted for the first home of non-Shanghai hukou families; the exemption area for the second and subsequent homes is 60 square meters per person; those who hold a residence permit for more than 3 years enjoy the same treatment as Shanghai hukou residents.
特殊群体与区域支持4. Support for Special Groups and Regions
多子女家庭：可增购 1 套，公积金贷款有额外上浮。
Multi-child families: Eligible to purchase an additional 1 unit, with an extra increase in provident fund loan amount.
绿色建筑：购二星及以上新建绿色建筑，公积金贷款额度上浮 15%。
Green buildings: An additional 15% increase in provident fund loan amount when purchasing new two-star and above green buildings.
人才政策：部分高层次 / 引进人才可放宽社保年限等，需相关部门审核。
Talent policies: Social security years and other requirements can be relaxed for some high-level/introduced talents, subject to review by relevant departments.
二、政策执行与流程
II. Policy Implementation and Process
资格核验：
Eligibility Verification:
2026年中国房地产十大趋势猜想：告别“一刀切”，拥抱“结构为王”的新时代
核心摘要：2026年，中国房地产市场的底层逻辑将完成深刻转换。普涨普跌的时代彻底终结，一个以结构性分化为最显著特征的新阶段正在到来。市场的表现将不再由单一政策或情绪驱动，而是深刻取决于城市能级、板块价值、产品品质与真实需求的精确匹配。理解并顺应这一趋势，将成为所有市场参与者——从政策制定者、开发商到每一位购房者——做出明智决策的关键。
一、前瞻基础：2026年市场运行的四大支柱与五大变数
任何理性的预测都需建立在明确的假设之上。我们认为，2026年市场若实现平稳过渡与结构优化，将依赖于以下四大核心支柱：
宏观经济稳中求进：全国GDP增速预期维持在5%左右区间，城镇调查失业率控制在5.5%以内，居民人均可支配收入实现4.8%-5.2%的同比增长，为住房消费提供最根本的收入支撑。
行业风险有效收敛：头部房企债务重组持续推进，融资环境边际改善，平均融资成本有望从高位下降0.3-0.5个百分点，至4.5%-5.5%。“保交楼”专项工作取得决定性成果，市场信心得以巩固。
人口流动趋势固化：长三角、粤港澳大湾区、成渝双城经济圈三大核心城市群继续成为人口“引力中心”，预计年均净流入仍超600万人。与此同时，部分东北、中西部人口流出地区的收缩将趋于平缓，年均人口减少率预计控制在1%-1.5%。
政策框架延续优化：中央政策定力延续，核心方向从“抑制过热”全面转向“防范风险”和“提振需求”。以支持“好房子”建设、推进城市更新、优化限购限贷为代表的“供给侧改革”与“需求侧管理”政策组合将持续发力。
然而，以下五大潜在风险可能改变市场运行轨迹：
经济增长不及预期：若GDP增速低于4.5%，居民就业与收入预期转弱，可能导致改善型需求占比从预期的40%回落至35%以下。
政策力度与节奏偏差：核心城市限制性政策松绑不彻底或滞后，可能使需求释放延后3-6个月；交易税费若未能进一步优化，将直接抑制置换链条的启动。
保障性住房分流效应：若2026年全国保障性租赁住房新开工量超过200万套，可能对市场化租赁房源造成冲击，导致租金回报率下降2-3个百分点，影响投资性购房的测算模型。
土地市场持续遇冷：核心城市优质涉宅用地流拍率若超过15%，将加剧未来新房供应短缺，可能引发二手房价格在特定区域的短期非理性波动。
长效机制试点加速：房地产税试点扩大或现房销售制度推进速度快于预期，可能在短期内对市场情绪形成扰动。
